If you think you can predict the future, you’re insane. Buffett is willing to bet a billion bucks you can’t predict your bracket. Try saying that fast. Anybody here predict the Malaysian flight disappearance ten days ago? The world we once lived in was actually quite predictable. Today, you’re nuts if you think you know what’s coming next. Jim Collins recently reversed his data driven course to admit even he doesn’t know.
“We’re heading into a world characterized by big events, big forces, massive storms. We’re going to be vulnerable little specks high on the mountain when the storm hits out of nowhere. And if we’re not prepared, we’re going to die up there…We are now, I think, having to adjust to dealing with a world that is going to be ferocious. We don’t have any practice with that. People like me who grew up in the postwar period are not practiced at the volatilities, the turbulence, the uncertainties of the world that will probably define the second half of my life.”
Now compare that to Taleb ranting in his book, The Black Swan. Think about business, not just the war implications.
“Once upon a time, we were better at war. In a primitive environment, if someone is threatening me, I go kill him. And I get good results most of the time. Mediocristan, a place where it is hard to kill many people at once; a place where cause and effect are more closely connected. Homo Sapiens spent hundreds of thousands of years living in Mediocristan. We rarely needed to understand probability because, most of the time, life was simpler, and the range of possible events was narrower. But today, we live in a place called Extremistan, subject to the tyranny of the singular, the accidental, the unseen and the unpredicted. Technology has allowed us to create weaponry that can strafe the planet in minutes. Risk is often counterintuitive in Extremistan. Our old tricks don’t work.”
Seems to me these two polars are coming together. They seem to agree that the big swing we’re in at the present is not a singular “bump” in the road. Instead, it’s more like a long, turbulent, trans-atlantic flight. Buckle up. AND,Remember the best preparation is to start to build you, your teams, and your leaders for this turbulent time.
NOW.
Normal leaders, when facing these facts, do NOT panic. Predictable, huh. Instead of panic they procrastinate. Actually, they become paralyzed with FEAR, and stop making decisions. They deny the need to change. Once they realize that change is inevitable, they delay the very decisions that must be made. By the time many leaders choose to decide, choose to act, the hour is late. The opportunity is past. The only way to avoid this plague is to practice.
PRACTICE.
More on that later…
For now, look in the mirror. Get out of denial, stop delaying, and start to make more decisions. Talk to your builders about the big decisions that everyone is waiting, watching, and wondering why you’re NOT already making.
Denial, Delay, Decidre.
Panic, Paralysis, Preparation.
Practice, Practice, Practice.
Make real decisions. Get yourself and your team prepared for an uncertain and turbulent time. AND, practice together with your team. Why? Because the best “early warning system” is built while getting tired with your teams in BTL practice. It’s called…
TRUST.
BUILT TO LEAD 